Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
